Tesla's Supply Chain Faces Difficulties And Reversal
Elon Musk Returns to Big Shot! Tesla's supply chain faces difficulties and reversal
There are too many positive news today, and market sentiment has clearly rebounded. Global stock markets have experienced a sharp rise, with A-shares also rising by more than 1%, reaching 3400 points.
Let's pick the three most important ones to talk about:
The first article is a comprehensive ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Yesterday, Iran and Israel, who were fighting in a dark and ruthless manner, reached an agreement on a "comprehensive and thorough ceasefire" under pressure from the United States today.
The dramatic changes came too quickly, to the point where sectors such as energy, shipping, dividends, and gold, which had surged recently, were all sold off.
With the disappearance of uncertainty, various funds flooded into the market, driving A-shares to surge in volume. Throughout the day, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.15%, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.30%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50+3.65%. High risk preference technology stocks continued to lead the way in gains.
The second positive news is that the Federal Reserve has released a signal for the next meeting to cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve's official website has released a latest speech titled "Unexpected Policy Shifts and Unexpected Consequences," written by the newly appointed Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Bauman.
The speech clearly states, 'If inflationary pressures remain manageable, I support lowering policy rates as early as the next meeting to bring them closer to neutral levels.'.
This is an important signal shift and the first statement of a possible interest rate cut released by the Federal Reserve so far this year.
As is well known, the A-share market surge that began on September 24th last year was due to the overflow of liquidity, which was based on the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in mid September last year.
Once the interest rate cut cycle resumes, market liquidity will further flood, and the support for A-shares is expected to reach a higher level.
This is also an important reason why market sentiment has become optimistic today. As a result, diversified finance, securities, insurance and other sectors have all recorded a surge of around 3%.
The third positive news is that Tesla's autonomous taxi Robotaxi has officially debuted.
Although Tesla only deployed 10 Robotaxi taxis on the first day, it remains an important milestone in the commercial history of autonomous taxis in the United States.
This positive news drove Tesla's stock price to soar 8.23% on Monday, and also boosted A-shares' motor+5.21%, battery+5.15%, automotive parts+4.14% and other sectors.
Since Lao Ma withdrew from the US political arena and returned to corporate management, it can be seen that Tesla's new actions are accelerating significantly, and various business lines are quietly making efforts.
Firstly, accelerate the landing of the product.
The autonomous taxi project, originally planned to land in 2026, has now been advanced to June 2025 and promises to achieve a production capacity of one million vehicles by 2026.
Another focus - the entry-level model project is also accelerating, and it has been announced that it will be launched in the Southeast Asian market in the fourth quarter of this year.
The new model may be named Model Q/Model 2 and is expected to be priced at $15000 to $20000, a significant decrease of more than half compared to the starting price of $44000 for the current best-selling Model 3 in the US market.
This is of great significance for Tesla to enter the sinking market and achieve the second round of sales expansion.
Secondly, there is an upgrade in technology research and development.
The humanoid robot Optimus project changed its leader Eluswami in mid June, and the new official took on three major roles, making significant adjustments to the research and development strategy.
He demands to strengthen the integration of hardware and AI big models, rather than just lowering technical standards in pursuit of mass production.
In the short term, this is a disadvantage for humanoid robots, as production plans have been postponed. However, in the long run, it may be the beginning of another technological revolution.
In addition, Tesla has also restarted its self-developed FSD chips this year, aiming to achieve a 300% increase in autonomous driving computing power by the end of 2025.
It is generally believed that autonomous driving and humanoid robots are the future that Tesla is heavily betting on. If it can maintain its technological leadership, it will help it far surpass its current business imagination.
Tesla experienced a sales struggle in the first half of this year, but now with the return of the old horse and the drastic reform and acceleration of the business line, the A-share Tesla supply chain has also reached the time of value reassessment.
Today, we will focus on analyzing the core targets of Tesla's supply chain.
1. Lianchuang Electronics.
The company is the core beneficiary of Tesla's autonomous driving project.
Tesla's autonomous driving technology adopts a pure visual solution and relies heavily on high-precision in car lenses.
The company has been cooperating with Tesla in the field of in car lenses since 2017, and its developed lenses for in car monitoring, front view ADAS, blind spot monitoring, etc. have been applied to Tesla cars.
Starting from 2025, the company will become the first supplier of Tesla lenses, accounting for over 60% of the market share, and certified by the Tesla HW4.0 platform with a lens yield rate of 99.5%.
In the next one or two years, with the launch of entry-level models, if Tesla's annual sales can increase by 20% -30%, based on 2.5 million vehicles and a 60% share of the company's supply chain, the camera business alone is expected to have a revenue growth of 800-900 million yuan.
If we add the deployment scale of 1 million autonomous taxis, the corresponding elasticity of camera revenue growth will reach 1.1-1.25 billion.
2. Top Group.
The company is Tesla's largest partner in China, providing various components such as chassis systems, shock absorbers, and interior functional parts. It is also a manufacturer of rotary/linear actuator assemblies and can provide integrated solutions for humanoid robots such as motors, reducers, and screws.
That is to say, Tesla's several core business segments can all be provided with supporting products by Top Group, which is deeply bound together.
Before 2023, Topu Group's revenue from Tesla accounted for approximately 40%.
However, with Tesla's sales declining in 2024 and Q1 of this year, as well as a significant increase in revenue from businesses such as Serys, the company's revenue from Tesla has decreased to around 30%.
This year, the company's Ningbo factory will be put into operation, with a planned annual production capacity of 1 million sets of robot actuators. It integrates components such as planetary roller screws and frameless torque motors, and has received preliminary orders from Tesla to adapt to Optimus leg joints.
3. Xusheng Corporation.
The company is one of Tesla's longest established partners in China, with a history of over a decade since 2013.
In the early days, the company mainly supplied aluminum alloy parts to Tesla, and later gradually expanded to core system components such as transmission systems, battery systems, and suspension systems.
In the past five years, the company's revenue from Tesla has maintained a long-term proportion of over 40%, with the highest reaching around 60%.
4. World Fortune Circuit.
The company became a PCB supplier for Tesla in 2015 and gradually expanded its cooperation to Tesla's charging stations, energy storage projects, electric vehicle three electric systems, supercomputers, and humanoid robots.
For example, the Dojo supercomputer PCB board independently developed by Tesla, the Megapack energy storage system main control board independently provided by Tesla, and the control board and power board developed in conjunction with Tesla Optimus humanoid robots.
Currently, Tesla contributes 20% of the company's automotive PCB revenue, accounting for approximately 7% of the total revenue.
The overall proportion is not particularly high, but the development of Tesla's emerging businesses has a significant impact on the company.
5. Sanhua Intelligent Control.
The company became a thermal management component supplier for Tesla in 2017, providing components such as battery thermal management and motor thermal management.
In the past two years, the company has further extended its business to humanoid robots, developing rotary actuator assemblies for Optimus, integrating planetary roller screws (precision 0.1mm) and six axis force sensors, with a single unit value exceeding 5000 yuan.
In April 2023, Sanhua Intelligent Control jointly invested with Green Harmonic to establish a joint venture factory in Mexico, focusing on the research and production of harmonic reducers. The planned annual production capacity is 500000 sets of actuators, and it is expected to have a market share of over 50% in Tesla's supply chain by 2027.
In addition, Sanhua Holdings has established a joint venture with Fengqiao Technology to develop hollow cup motors for use in Tesla Optimus dexterous hands.
Overall, the company's investment in Tesla's humanoid robots is significant, and in recent years, cooperation has become increasingly deep into core technology areas.
6. Green harmonics.
The company is the leading domestic harmonic reducer and also the second main supplier of Tesla humanoid robot harmonic reducers.
Starting from 2024, small-scale sample delivery will begin, and an official order of 10000 sets will be signed in 2025, with partial delivery completed in the second quarter of 2025.
There is still a technological gap between the company and Japanese leader Hamonaco, but the gap is rapidly narrowing. The advantage is the price, which is about 85% of Hamonaco's price.
Tesla adopts a mixed use strategy, and the supply of Hamernaco is expected to be more than twice that of green harmonics.
7. Mingzhi Electric Appliances.
The company provides hollow cup motors for Tesla Optimus robots for their dexterous hand drive system.
In 2023, Mingzhi Electric received testing feedback on Tesla's hollow cup motor samples and subsequently established a cooperative relationship.
The hollow cup motor is the core component of the dexterous hand, with a single finger joint value of about 2000 yuan, and a total of over 40000 yuan for a single robot's hands.
8. Jiangsu Leili and Dingzhi Technology.
Jiangsu Leili has become a supplier of linear actuators (screws) and hollow cup motors for Tesla humanoid robots through its subsidiary Dingzhi Technology.
At present, both are in the stage of sample testing and small-scale supply, and are expected to be finalized for mass production in the third quarter.
